COVID: The Case Against the UK Government

For now let's put aside the science around whether the disease known as COVID-19 is caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and focus on the evidence as it emerged.

Let's keep two alternative possibilities in mind as we look at the facts.

You can see that the public started discussing the possibility of a second wave at the same time that the very first deaths started to occur. Surely that is very early.

If Case A (the Government is acting in good faith), this really does not make sense. The public did not suddenly starting talking about it for no reason. Why would the key influencers (WHO, Government, and media) seed the idea of a second wave so soon?

It only makes any sense in Case B (the Government is knowingly rolling out a prepared agenda), where it could be argued that the idea of "second wave" is being implanted into the public's consciousness. Why? Is it to set expectations of a second wave that is already planned?

"Flatten the Curve" quickly dropped as priority

Early in the COVID crisis, the Government implemented a nationwide lockdown, which has resulted in the closure of a huge number of businesses, the loss of huge numbers of jobs, and an economic recession that has seen the UK economy shrink by one third (at the time of writing). The speed and scale of the sudden recession has already dwarfed the 2008 financial crisis (source).

The justification presented to the public for these extreme measures was that we had to "flatten the curve".

The next graph shows the UK official COVID-related daily death figures (blue bars) together with the Google Trends graph for interest in the term "flatten the curve" (orange line). You can see that, again, interest in the phrase peaked even before the curve actually started to appear, and then dropped to less than half of its peak interest by the time the curve reached its maximum in mid-April.

Furthermore (and this is a recurring theme), if flattening the curve was ever truly the goal, we would now be celebrating the fact that the curve has been flat for nearly two months. We are not. Neither the Government nor mainstream media have been cheering the fact that the COVID wave has, to all extents and purposes, ended and that the country can return to normal.

Here are the daily deaths in hospital, according to the latest NHS data, for the whole of the UK, by age group. Even in the hardest-hit groups (60 years and 80-plus), the curve is now objectively flat. Why are we not partying in the streets? (When it comes to younger age groups, the picture is even more ridiculous. The official NHS numbers show that only two people aged under forty have died in hospital in the past month related to COVID.)

If Case A were true, you would expect that the Government would be proudly announcing its success in halting COVID mortality. However, there have been no such announcements. On the contrary, the narrative from both Government and state news sources continue to stress the threat of another wave. Case A makes no sense.

It does all fit with the Case B scenario. If the Government's purpose involves perpetuating the fear level thus justifying continuing the increased level of control over the population's freedoms, then you can see why they would choose to ignore the simple fact that today there is no epidemic in the UK.

Mortality now lower than flu

In the beginning we were all scared into thinking that that the disease caused by this new virus was extremely dangerous. We saw videos of people dropping dead in the streets in Wuhan. The media reported shocking warnings that the UK might see half a million dead.

We can now see that, even accepting the official mortality figures (which in fact do not represent people who have died "of" COVID-19, but only with a mention on the death certificate or following a positive test result), the mortality rate is far lower than the public was led to believe.

Let's compare the deaths so far in 2020 that have been attributed to COVID-19 with those from influenza and pneumonia.

Again, if Case A were true, the Government would be wasting no time in announcing the end of the epidemic and delivering the good news that everything can now return to normal. Considering the incredible damage that has already been inflicted on the UK economy, you would imagine that the party in power would be anxious to lift the restrictions.

As none of that has happened, we must consider Case B. Not only has the Government resisted the clear opportunity to end all the restrictions, they have actually implemented new rules, including the requirement to wear face coverings in enclosed public spaces, backed up with the threat of a £100+ fine, since July 24th.

For clarity, we have highlighted that date of July 24th on the chart of daily COVID-related deaths below. Why impose new restrictions on freedom after the fatality curve flattened and all but disappeared?

COVID deaths been eliminated, but flu unaffected

However, the graph above leads to a far more worrying question.

We have been told repeatedly that the restrictive measures were necessary to slow the spread of this deadly virus.

But if that is the case, and seeing that this policy has apparently been extremely effective as deaths have now been practically eliminated... why can we not see a similar impact on flu deaths?

Let's consider that all four of the following statements are true.

1. Influenza and COVID-19 are both caused by a pathogenic virus.
2. Both viruses are communicable (through interpersonal contact, possibly from surfaces, and possibly through the air).
3. The extreme measures that have been implemented on the UK population were necessary to slow the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19.
4. And that they have been extremely successful, helping to bring mortality to near-zero.

Now, if all those are true, you have to ask...

Deaths in care homes have dropped back to normal

• The orange line shows the deaths in 2020.
• Grey = deaths in 2019.
• Blue = deaths attributed to COVID-19.
• Yellow = 2019 deaths added to COVID deaths.

This raises a few interesting questions, not least the question of what caused the excess deaths among care home residents that have not been attributed to COVID-19 (i.e. the excess gap between the orange and yellow lines).

But the simplest and most obvious question is...

If COVID-19 was indeed killing up to five hundred care home residents daily in April 2020, how come the death rate has practically come to a halt, resulting in slightly fewer deaths in this high-risk group in mid-June than the previous year?

In April, we had already had several weeks' warning of the pandemic, so it would be fair to assume that the people who run care homes will have been able to implement the necessary changes in policy to protect their residents. Nevertheless, throughout the whole month of April, at least twice as many elderly care home residents died as the year before.

But the deaths have now returned to normal levels, with almost zero COVID-related deaths. If practices and policies in care homes are similar now to what they were in April and May 2020, how can this be possible? Remember that old people in care homes spend most of their time indoors anyway, so changes in weather are very unlikely to have much effect.

One logical explanation could be that most or even all the extra deaths were a result not of COVID-19, but a result of some other policy. We know that, at this time, care home residents were routinely issued with do not resuscitate (DNR) orders, in order to "protect the NHS", and that many were denied access to care on hospital wards, which could have prolonged their lives.

This leads us uncomfortably on to the next question.

If the Government believes there is a pandemic and is committed to helping us to get through it safely and quickly (Case A), why would they suppress the reporting the deaths in care homes? Surely this is more good news.

Again, this bizarre pattern of behaviour only makes sense if Case B is true. If the deaths have returned to lower-than-normal levels, and the Government wishes to perpetuate fear by continuing to promote the idea that there is still a pandemic caused by a virulent pathogen, you can imagine why they would wish to suppress facts that indicate otherwise.

In the media, the switch to "cases" has been even more pronounced and obvious. In fact, doing a search on Google.co.uk returns almost three times more results that mention "COVID cases" than "COVID deaths".

A clue may lie in the fact that death numbers are pretty absolute. There is not much the Government can do to massage that data point. Of course, its primary job is to bring the number down as low as possible as fast as possible, which makes it all the more surprising that they are not shouting their success from the rooftops. But the "cases" figure is something that they can influence, simply by running more and more tests.

If Case A is true, and the UK Government's priority is to protect the population and get through the COVID crisis as swiftly and as safely as possible, why would they stop talking about deaths and start talking "cases" as the death rate dropped towards zero?

Cases simply refer to positive test results. They do not mean that someone is sick, or at risk of dying. Yet testing has continued to grow week-on-week, now averaging over 150,000 tests being processed daily. Why would a Government whose priority is a rapid and safe return to normal keep increasing its efforts to find more "cases", instead of applauding the vanishing mortality numbers?

Again, only Case B makes logical sense. The Government's own actions show that it is continually pouring more resources into the search for "cases", which could have the effect of spreading fear and panic, and choosing not to report the good news that now almost nobody is dying of COVID-19, which of course would have the opposite effect.

The following chart shows the extent of the Government's efforts to find ever more "cases" to report. It shows tests carried out (blue line) and number of positive "cases" found (red line) up to August 2nd, 2020. Is the only reason that "cases" are on the rise because even more resources have been poured into testing?

Mis-reported statistics

As if all the previous questions were not enough to condemn this Government's actions, all you need to do is consider its complete failure to report the correct numbers of cases and deaths related to COVID-19.

Let us be clear. In the middle of a global disease pandemic, the Government's number one priority must be to evaluate the danger accurately. The responsibility falls on the Health Secretary, who completely failed to deliver. He had ONE JOB.

If Case A is true, the Government has exhibited incompetence to a degree that is simply unimaginable. If that is true, it should be subject to an immediate vote of no confidence and a new Government should be formed as soon as possible to help take control of the reins.

But that is not what the evidence suggests. The idea that so many highly educated, powerful politicians can manage to fail so spectacularly in the most fundamental task, and then seek to blame others, is unthinkable. The only logical conclusion the thinking person can possible make is that the UK Government has conspired to inflate the death and infection figures by any means necessary.

Conclusion